← Grand Archive - Store Championship - 28/02/26
Water FractalTier 1
at Grand Archive - Store Championship - 28/02/26
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -1.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 8.3% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.0% | +5.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.7% | +11.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.5% | -5.7 |
| Fire Suited | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 45.1% | -4.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.8 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.8 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.3 |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 19 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 19 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Mana | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |