← Grand Arena PTM Store Championship
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Grand Arena PTM Store Championship
decks
2
(18.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
5-4-0
overall winrate
55.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.2%
avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
51.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1384
· median 1384
· range 1290–1478
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1177
Q1 1184
Q3 1344
1478
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 18.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +1.4 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.0% | -22.4 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.1% | -13.3 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
