← Gonza Grand Archive PTM Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Gonza Grand Archive PTM Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Shadowstrike 1 8.3% 5 100.0% 66.3% 62.7% 57.3% 1300 ↑ top
2 Fire Exia 1 8.3% 5 80.0% 68.3% 58.7% 59.8% 1186
3 Fire Suzaku 2 16.7% 8 50.0% 49.4% 51.1% 50.7% 1203
4 Water Fractal 1 8.3% 3 66.7% 51.6% 50.0% 48.0% 1354 ↑ top
5 Fire Oblation 1 8.3% 3 33.3% 46.5% 46.7% 48.4% 1146
6 Water Genbu 1 8.3% 3 33.3% 43.8% 46.7% 47.1% 1177
7 Wind Allies 1 8.3% 3 33.3% 39.2% 46.7% 45.0% 1165
8 Fire Crux Lorraine 1 8.3% 3 33.3% 51.9% 45.0% 49.5% 1086 ↓ low
9 Water Aetherwing 1 8.3% 3 33.3% 44.4% 45.0% 45.5% 1122 ↓ low
10 Water Diana 1 8.3% 3 33.3% 49.3% 45.0% 47.8% 1033 ↓ low
11 Water Slimes 1 8.3% 3 0.0% 29.7% 40.0% 40.5% 1154