EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championships.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 22.2% | 5 | 90.0% | 64.6% | 59.2% | 56.0% | 1478 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 83.3% | 62.3% | 55.0% | 55.2% | 1317 | — |
| 3 | Water Fractal | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 66.7% | 51.3% | 50.0% | 48.4% | 1360 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 11.1% | 2 | 50.0% | 51.4% | 50.0% | 50.8% | 1258 | — |
| 5 | Wind Exia Jin | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 49.0% | 46.7% | 49.5% | 1175 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 11.1% | 2 | 0.0% | 36.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | 1133 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Wind Alice | 1 | 11.1% | 2 | 0.0% | 37.8% | 40.0% | 42.7% | 1170 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Water Seiryuu | 1 | 11.1% | 2 | 0.0% | 38.3% | 33.3% | 38.3% | 1211 | ↓ low |