EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Curio Store Champs (PTM).
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 10.0% | 6 | 91.7% | 68.4% | 61.2% | 58.3% | 1451 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 10.0% | 6 | 66.7% | 51.9% | 54.3% | 51.1% | 1418 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 10.0% | 6 | 58.3% | 63.8% | 52.5% | 56.3% | 1262 | — |
| 4 | Wind Allies | 1 | 10.0% | 6 | 50.0% | 46.6% | 50.7% | 49.4% | 1293 | — |
| 5 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 40.4% | 50.0% | 46.2% | 1511 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Luxem Zander | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 37.5% | 54.6% | 47.5% | 51.8% | 1138 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Wind Silvie | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 37.5% | 44.8% | 47.5% | 47.9% | 1192 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Water Chess | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 47.5% | 46.7% | 1341 | — |
| 9 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 37.5% | 38.3% | 47.5% | 45.3% | 1245 | — |
| 10 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 0.0% | 41.8% | 40.0% | 46.7% | 989 | ↓ low |