← PTM Store Championship feb 28th
Fire OverlordTier 2
at PTM Store Championship feb 28th
decks
1
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
0-3-1
overall winrate
12.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.9%
avg ELO -3.9 per match
expected value
42.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1162
· median 1162
· range 1162–1162
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1153
Q1 1299
Q3 1447
1576
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.0% | -4.8 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 8.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Water Fractal | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Overlord decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
