Fire AggroTier 2
at SC PTM Store Championship
decks
1
(5.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
0-2-2
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
35.7%
avg ELO -9.1 per match
expected value
46.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1266
· median 1266
· range 1266–1266
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1162
Q1 1185
Q3 1350
1492
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 17.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.3% | -7.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 11.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +2.7 |
| Water Fractal | 11.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Allen | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Aggro decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
