← GA Middle East Weekly PTM #12
Water AetherwingTier 2
at GA Middle East Weekly PTM #12
decks
2
(13.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-3-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.7%
avg ELO -0.2 per match
expected value
48.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1288
· median 1288
· range 1197–1378
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1047
Q1 1152
Q3 1327
1425
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 13.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 13.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.3% | -1.2 |
| Slimes | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.2% | -1.3 |
| Wind Ciel | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.2% | -1.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
