EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Champs.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Wind Vanitas | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 75.0% | 63.8% | 55.0% | 55.5% | 1303 | — |
| 2 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 66.7% | 50.1% | 53.3% | 50.1% | 1329 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Fractal | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 62.5% | 53.8% | 52.5% | 51.5% | 1259 | — |
| 4 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 62.5% | 49.2% | 52.5% | 49.7% | 1328 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Allies | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 50.4% | 50.0% | 50.2% | 1484 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 47.7% | 50.0% | 49.1% | 1352 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 50.3% | 46.7% | 50.2% | 1179 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 45.8% | 46.7% | 48.0% | 1168 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Slimes | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 0.0% | 36.7% | 40.0% | 43.8% | 1125 | ↓ low |