← Grand Archive Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Grand Archive Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 87.5% | 65.3% | 57.5% | 56.1% | 1354 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 75.0% | 63.5% | 55.0% | 55.4% | 1256 | — |
| 3 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 75.0% | 56.2% | 55.0% | 52.5% | 1345 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 66.7% | 56.8% | 53.3% | 53.2% | 1246 | — |
| 5 | Fire Exia | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 37.5% | 48.6% | 47.5% | 49.4% | 1206 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 37.0% | 46.7% | 43.9% | 1334 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Water Crux Merlin | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 46.6% | 46.7% | 48.4% | 1161 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 25.0% | 38.1% | 45.0% | 45.2% | 1237 | — |
| 9 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 0.0% | 34.8% | 40.0% | 42.9% | 1118 | ↓ low |