Water GenbuTier 1
at PTM Store Championship
decks
1
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-2-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.3%
avg ELO -4.9 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1340
· median 1340
· range 1340–1340
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1092
Q1 1120
Q3 1245
1637
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suited | 22.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 39.7% | -9.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.7% | -5.2 |
| Water Fractal | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.3 |
| Wind Chess | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Genbu decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
