← Grand Archive Phantom Monarch Store Championships
Water AetherwingTier 2
at Grand Archive Phantom Monarch Store Championships
decks
2
(16.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
4-5-0
overall winrate
44.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.9%
avg ELO -1.9 per match
expected value
49.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1231
· median 1231
· range 1178–1283
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1049
Q1 1169
Q3 1273
1420
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 8.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 29.4% | -19.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 8.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.8% | +3.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 8.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.6% | -11.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
