Horse and TaxesTier 1
at GA Regional Kuwait
decks
2
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
6-3-1
overall winrate
65.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.4%
avg ELO +3.3 per match
expected value
52.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1257
· median 1257
· range 1223–1291
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1155
Q1 1171
Q3 1297
1353
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 25.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.4% | -4.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.0% | +2.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.3% | +11.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +2.5 |
| Wind Alice | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
