EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at PTM STORE CHAMPIONSHIP.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Allies | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 80.0% | 65.6% | 56.0% | 55.6% | 1253 | ↓ low |
| 2 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 80.0% | 48.2% | 56.0% | 49.4% | 1467 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 80.0% | 65.6% | 56.0% | 55.6% | 1253 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Water Crux Assassin | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 75.0% | 58.6% | 54.0% | 52.4% | 1467 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 20.0% | 7 | 64.3% | 51.3% | 52.8% | 50.1% | 1407 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 60.0% | 53.9% | 50.0% | 49.7% | 1348 | — |
| 7 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 50.0% | 53.2% | 47.3% | 49.1% | 1346 | — |
| 8 | Fire Byakko | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 20.0% | 45.4% | 46.7% | 50.9% | 1166 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 20.0% | 45.4% | 46.7% | 50.9% | 1166 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 20.0% | 28.2% | 44.0% | 42.2% | 1339 | — |
| 11 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 0.0% | 35.1% | 40.0% | 44.7% | 1173 | ↓ low |