Water AetherwingTier 2
at Little Giant’s League 3
decks
2
(7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
3-6-1
overall winrate
35.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.2%
avg ELO -0.8 per match
expected value
46.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1202
· median 1202
· range 1163–1241
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1045
Q1 1158
Q3 1263
1355
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.8% | -2.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.6% | +2.6 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.9% | -1.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.6% | +2.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.9% | -3.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
| Water Fractal | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.8% | -3.5 |
| Water Umbra Alice | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.4% | +3.9 |
| Wind Ciel | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
| Wind Diana | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 3.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
