← Phantom Monarchs Store Championship by Metagame Thailand
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Phantom Monarchs Store Championship by Metagame Thailand.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Fractal | 1 | 10.0% | 6 | 83.3% | 61.9% | 57.1% | 54.3% | 1377 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 60.0% | 63.1% | 55.8% | 58.8% | 1204 | ↓ low |
| 3 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 10.0% | 6 | 66.7% | 49.2% | 54.0% | 50.0% | 1478 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 60.0% | 49.5% | 52.0% | 49.8% | 1392 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 60.6% | 52.0% | 55.5% | 1177 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 10.0% | 3 | 33.3% | 50.1% | 46.7% | 50.1% | 1265 | — |
| 7 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 20.0% | 5 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 43.3% | 43.3% | 1239 | — |
| 8 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 10.0% | 2 | 0.0% | 31.7% | 40.0% | 39.0% | 1312 | — |
| 9 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 10.0% | 2 | 0.0% | 41.6% | 40.0% | 44.5% | 1083 | ↓ low |