← [TCG] Grand Archive Online League NA Weekly 4/16/2026
Water Umbra AliceTier 2
at [TCG] Grand Archive Online League NA Weekly 4/16/2026
decks
1
(2.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-2-1
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.3%
avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
46.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1115
· median 1115
· range 1115–1115
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1115
Q1 1192
Q3 1411
1563
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luxem Mordred | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.3% | -1.1 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exalted Mordred | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fractal | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.4% | +2.2 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 2.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.6 |
| Water Exalted Mordred | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.4% | -0.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Alice | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Alice decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
