Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at DFG Store Champs
decks
2
(25.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
1-5-0
overall winrate
16.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
28.5%
avg ELO -11.5 per match
expected value
35.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
34.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1391
· median 1391
· range 1372–1410
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1173
Q1 1362
Q3 1493
1616
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 25.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 30.3% | -14.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 25.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.1% | -8.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
