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Water Crux MageTier 1
at Deep Dive Games Store Championship
decks
1
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-1-1
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.3%
avg ELO -0.5 per match
expected value
52.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1304
· median 1304
· range 1304–1304
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1119
Q1 1167
Q3 1368
1476
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aetherwing | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Fire Razorgale | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.4 |
| Wind Cats | 12.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.9% | -6.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
