Radiant Origin of Lost Spirit

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Fire Aggro	Tier 1	1	12.5%	1-1-1	50.0%	51.3%	50.0%	50.6%	1087	↓ low
2		Fire Umbra Alice	Tier 1	1	12.5%	2-0-2	75.0%	52.5%	55.0%	51.0%	1182	↑ top
3		Luxem Mordred	Tier 1	1	12.5%	2-1-0	66.7%	51.0%	53.3%	50.5%	1177	↑ top
4		Water Allies	Tier 2	1	12.5%	0-1-2	33.3%	48.6%	46.7%	49.4%	1160	—
5		Water Chess	Tier 2	1	12.5%	0-1-2	33.3%	48.6%	46.7%	49.4%	1160	—
6		Water Crux Assassin	Tier 1	1	12.5%	1-1-1	50.0%	51.0%	50.0%	50.4%	1114	↓ low
7		Water Exalted Mordred	Tier 1	1	12.5%	0-0-4	50.0%	49.2%	50.0%	49.7%	1156	—
8		Water Tera Cleric	Tier 2	1	12.5%	0-3-0	0.0%	45.1%	40.0%	47.7%	1159	—
9		Wind Ciel	Tier 1	1	12.5%	3-1-0	75.0%	52.1%	55.0%	50.8%	1182	↑ top

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Fire Aggro 1 deck · 12.5%
• Fire Umbra Alice 1 deck · 12.5%
• Luxem Mordred 1 deck · 12.5%
• Water Allies 1 deck · 12.5%
• Water Chess 1 deck · 12.5%
• Water Crux Assassin 1 deck · 12.5%
• Water Exalted Mordred 1 deck · 12.5%
• Water Tera Cleric 1 deck · 12.5%
• Wind Ciel 1 deck · 12.5%