Water FractalTier 1
at Store Champion Ship
decks
1
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-2-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.9%
avg ELO +6.4 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1157
· median 1157
· range 1157–1157
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1157
Q1 1166
Q3 1399
1545
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chess | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Fire Suited | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.6% | -2.3 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
