Fire AggroTier 2
at BBK RDO Store Championship
decks
2
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
3-5-2
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.2%
avg ELO +0.1 per match
expected value
46.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1144
· median 1144
· range 999–1290
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
999
Q1 1159
Q3 1375
1470
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 10.7% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 37.8% | -9.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Fire Suited | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luxem Mordred | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -8.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +2.3 |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.0% | +6.4 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.8% | +20.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
