← AeXern | RDO Store Championship
Water FractalTier 1
at AeXern | RDO Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Crux Assassin | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 11.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +2.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.5 |
| Slimes | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.3% | -23.6 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 21 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return to the Archive | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |