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Fire OblationTier 1

at The Card Shop RDO Grand Archive Store Championship

decks
4 (19.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17 13-4-0
overall winrate
76.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
70.8% avg ELO +8.2 per match
expected value
59.1% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
58.3% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1345 · median 1375 · range 1148–1482 (4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1032 Q1 1199 Q3 1317 1482
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 25% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Seiryuu 14.3% 6 4-2-0 66.7% 60.0% 58.9% +4.7
Fire Aggro 9.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.8% +7.7
Fire Crux Lorraine 4.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 63.9% +22.2
Fire Crux Mage 4.8% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 62.1% +9.0
Fire Slimes 4.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.2% +16.3
Fire Suited 4.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.5% -10.4
Fire Suzaku 4.8% 0
Fire Tera Diao Chan 4.8% 0
Slimes 4.8% 0
Water Fractal 4.8% 0
Water Tera Kongming 4.8% 0
Wind Allies 4.8% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 61.2% +10.7
Wind Razorgale 4.8% 0
Wind Wakeup Combo 4.8% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 64.1% +13.5
Decklists · 4 from this event

The 4 public Fire Oblation decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 3 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Golden Checkmate, Staggering Strike, Enfeebling Orb. Losers more often ran: Heavenly Guide, Expel the Departed, Ionized Asceticism.

Played more by winners
Golden Checkmate
Winning decks ran 3.0 copies on average, losing decks 2.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Staggering Strike
Winning decks ran 1.3 copies on average, losing decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Enfeebling Orb
Winning decks ran 0.7 copies on average, losing decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Nullifying Lantern
Winning decks ran 0.7 copies on average, losing decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Turbo Charge
Winning decks ran 1.7 copies on average, losing decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Tariff Ring
Winning decks ran 0.7 copies on average, losing decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Played more by losers
Heavenly Guide
Losing decks ran 0.7 copies on average, winning decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Expel the Departed
Losing decks ran 3.7 copies on average, winning decks 3.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Ionized Asceticism
Losing decks ran 2.7 copies on average, winning decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Folded Shadows
Losing decks ran 0.7 copies on average, winning decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Devastating Blow
Losing decks ran 1.0 copy on average, winning decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Safeguard Amulet
Losing decks ran 0.7 copies on average, winning decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Show all 29 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 13 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Golden Checkmate +0.33 2 1 0
Staggering Strike +0.33 2 1 0
Undeniable Truth +0.33 1 0 2
Heavenly Guide -0.33 1 2 0
Expel the Departed -0.33 1 2 0
Enfeebling Orb +0.33 2 1 0
Umbra Sight +0.33 1 0 2
Ionized Asceticism -0.33 1 2 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +0.33 1 0 2
Folded Shadows -0.33 1 2 0
Devastating Blow -0.33 1 2 0
Nullifying Lantern +0.33 2 1 0
Turbo Charge +0.33 2 1 0
Crystallized Destiny +0.33 1 0 2
Safeguard Amulet -0.33 1 2 0
Abnegation +0.33 1 0 2
Tariff Ring +0.33 2 1 0
Carter, Synthetic Reaper +0.33 2 1 0
Advent of the Stormcaller -0.33 1 2 0
Annul Spell -0.33 1 2 0
Nocturne's Oblivion +0.33 2 1 0
Smoke Out -0.33 0 1 0
Devouring Malice -0.33 0 1 0
Regal Inquisition -0.33 0 1 0
Reduce to Ash -0.33 0 1 0
Resolute Stand +0.00 1 1 1
Rictus Tiding +0.00 1 1 0
Topsy Decree +0.00 1 1 1
Prismspire Scepter +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/51574/archetypes/Fire Oblation