← April Month-ender with RDO PRs
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at April Month-ender with RDO PRs
decks
2
(20.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
4-2-0
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.7%
avg ELO +1.4 per match
expected value
54.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1198
· median 1198
· range 1107–1289
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1037
Q1 1175
Q3 1274
1356
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 10.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.5% | +2.3 |
| Slimes | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.5% | +2.4 |
| Water Allies | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.4% | +3.9 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
