EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 店家冠軍賽.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 12.5% | 6 | 91.7% | 80.9% | 59.7% | 61.8% | 1360 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 12.5% | 6 | 75.0% | 66.3% | 56.3% | 56.9% | 1389 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 12.5% | 4 | 50.0% | 34.1% | 52.0% | 45.7% | 1535 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 12.5% | 4 | 50.0% | 34.1% | 52.0% | 45.7% | 1535 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Fractal | 1 | 12.5% | 4 | 25.0% | 51.9% | 48.0% | 53.3% | 1180 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 2 | 25.0% | 6 | 33.3% | 38.8% | 46.7% | 46.3% | 1309 | — |
| 7 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 48.1% | 45.0% | 48.0% | 1171 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 0.0% | 34.7% | 40.0% | 43.4% | 1161 | ↓ low |