Water AetherwingTier 1
at Cardart RDO Store Champs
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Slimes | 10.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.5 |
| Water Fractal | 10.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.9% | -22.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.8 |
| Horse and Taxes | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 7.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.4% | +6.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.6% | -3.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.4% | +0.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.5% | -5.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.1% | +1.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 28 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 28 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Refreshing Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dissuading Aether | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Engulf | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Palvor Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Judgment's Arrow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Divinity | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vantage Point | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Glacial Binding | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drown in Aether | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Duskstalker | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cardinal of Divine Rite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Haunt Reminiscence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reposition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shade Striker | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Take Aim | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Aetherwing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |