Fire ExiaTier 2
at Store Champs
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chess | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Water Neos | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Oblation | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +14.0 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 33 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 33 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exia Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Angel Attendant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Angelic Channeling | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Limitless Defiance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scarlet Tassel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Prescience | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Benediction Angel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Siphoning Stab | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Advantage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seething Intercession | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Transfusive Aura | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regenerate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Relentless Outburst | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Rupture | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Savage Sunder | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annihilation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |