Fire AetherwingTier 1
at Fun4 RDO 店家冠軍賽
decks
2
(14.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
4-6-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.7%
avg ELO +1.2 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1163
· median 1163
· range 945–1380
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
945
Q1 1241
Q3 1348
1543
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 21.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.7% | +6.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.8% | +26.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.9% | +4.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.3% | -2.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.1 |
| Water Exia | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.8 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.8 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
