← RDO Store Championship Hobby Lords Takapuna
Fire Umbra AliceTier 2
at RDO Store Championship Hobby Lords Takapuna
decks
1
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
0-2-2
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.1%
avg ELO -0.6 per match
expected value
43.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1102
· median 1102
· range 1102–1102
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1102
Q1 1221
Q3 1471
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 20.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 51.4% | +1.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.1 |
| Water Genbu | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 10.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +3.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Alice decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
