← Store Championship at Final Cut TCG
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championship at Final Cut TCG.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 58.4% | 58.3% | 1351 | — |
| 2 | Water Genbu | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 62.5% | 53.3% | 53.8% | 53.0% | 1434 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 62.5% | 52.1% | 52.0% | 48.8% | 1254 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Water Aetherwing | 4 | 30.8% | 11 | 54.5% | 43.6% | 51.6% | 47.3% | 1436 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 49.4% | 50.0% | 49.7% | 1387 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Slimes | 3 | 23.1% | 9 | 44.4% | 54.7% | 48.9% | 52.5% | 1265 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Water Fractal | 1 | 7.7% | 3 | 33.3% | 50.9% | 43.3% | 48.6% | 1138 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Exia Jin | 1 | 7.7% | 3 | 0.0% | 34.5% | 40.0% | 44.3% | 1151 | ↓ low |