← Store Championship - Mercurial Heart
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championship - Mercurial Heart.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 12.5% | 7 | 78.6% | 66.8% | 61.6% | 60.7% | 1314 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Allies | 4 | 50.0% | 11 | 59.1% | 56.4% | 54.7% | 54.6% | 1327 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Slimes | 2 | 25.0% | 11 | 54.5% | 49.9% | 50.1% | 48.6% | 1300 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 12.5% | 1 | 0.0% | 42.9% | 40.0% | 42.9% | 1090 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Wind Overlord | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 0.0% | 32.3% | 40.0% | 41.5% | 1168 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Wind Slice & Dice | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 0.0% | 32.8% | 35.6% | 38.3% | 1399 | ↑ top |