EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Standard Sunday.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 25.0% | 3 | 100.0% | 51.9% | 60.0% | 50.9% | 1445 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Norm Tera Silvie | 1 | 25.0% | 3 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 1166 | ↓ low |
| 3 | Wind Allies | 1 | 25.0% | 3 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 1187 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Fire Diana | 1 | 25.0% | 3 | 0.0% | 48.1% | 40.0% | 49.1% | 1153 | ↓ low |