← Home-run Mercurial Heart Store Championship
SlimesTier 1
at Home-run Mercurial Heart Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 25.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.9% | +5.7 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Ethereal Slime, Resolute Stand, Ordinary Bear. Losers more often ran: Lustrous Slime, Vampiric Slime, Beastbond Boots.
Show all 25 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 7 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lustrous Slime | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Ethereal Slime | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Vampiric Slime | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Ordinary Bear | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Slime Totem | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hymn of Gaia's Grace | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Verdant Scepter | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Verdant Slime | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Twilight Slime | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Engineered Slime | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Green Slime | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Baby Blue Slime | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Reprogram | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Beastbond Paws | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Serum of Wisdom | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gaia's Songbird | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |