← CardArt Mercurial Heart Store Championship
Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at CardArt Mercurial Heart Store Championship
decks
2
(25.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
4-1-0
overall winrate
80.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.7%
avg ELO +5.6 per match
expected value
56.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1479
· median 1479
· range 1280–1679
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1008
Q1 1206
Q3 1421
1679
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 25.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -2.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.1% | +21.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Slimes | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.6% | +4.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
