EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at MRC Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 16.7% | 2 | 100.0% | 63.1% | 60.0% | 57.5% | 1303 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 16.7% | 3 | 50.0% | 42.1% | 50.0% | 46.2% | 1272 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Slimes | 2 | 33.3% | 3 | 50.0% | 56.3% | 50.0% | 53.0% | 1214 | — |
| 4 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 16.7% | 3 | 33.3% | 44.1% | 45.0% | 45.0% | 1253 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 16.7% | 1 | 0.0% | 44.8% | 40.0% | 44.8% | 1181 | ↓ low |