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Water AlliesTier 1
at Games & Lattes Store Championship
decks
1
(5.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
3-1-0
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.6%
avg ELO +5.5 per match
expected value
55.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1303
· median 1303
· range 1303–1303
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1101
Q1 1178
Q3 1303
1505
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 17.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -1.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 17.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
