EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Champs @ Hydropump.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Neos | 1 | 20.0% | 3 | 100.0% | 68.9% | 64.4% | 62.9% | 1250 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 40.0% | 5 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 53.3% | 53.3% | 1219 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 20.0% | 2 | 0.0% | 35.3% | 40.0% | 40.8% | 1169 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Slimes | 1 | 20.0% | 2 | 0.0% | 34.3% | 33.3% | 34.3% | 1172 | ↓ low |