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Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1

at JWW MRC Store Champs

decks
3 (27.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8 6-1-1
overall winrate
81.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
60.4% avg ELO +5.0 per match
expected value
58.1% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.2% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1389 · median 1341 · range 1314–1513 (3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1120 Q1 1196 Q3 1365 1689
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Dawn of Ashes 9.1% 0
Fire Aggro 9.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.6% +10.5
Fire Crux Hybrid 9.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.9% +12.6
Overlord 9.1% 0
Water Astra Cleric 9.1% 0
Wind Allies 9.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.5% +8.8
Wind Arcane 9.1% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 43.3% -6.5
Wind Diana 9.1% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 54.8% +4.6
Wind Slimes 9.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.2% +11.6
Decklists · 3 from this event

The 3 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 13 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 13 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Tithe Proclamation +1.00 1 0 0
Diablerie +1.00 1 0 0
Dungeon Guide -1.00 0 1 0
Dusklight Communion -1.00 0 1 0
Ravaging Tempest +1.00 1 0 0
Stifling Trap -1.00 0 1 0
Grand Crusader's Ring -1.00 0 1 0
Umbra Sight +1.00 1 0 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +1.00 1 0 0
Quicksilver Grail +1.00 1 0 0
Tariff Ring -1.00 0 1 0
Mastermind Scheme -1.00 0 1 0
Sirocco Operative +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/6514/archetypes/Wind Shadowstrike