← GGA Grand Archive Store Championship
Water AlliesTier 1
at GGA Grand Archive Store Championship
decks
1
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
3-0-1
overall winrate
87.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
61.8%
avg ELO +7.6 per match
expected value
57.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1287
· median 1287
· range 1287–1287
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
985
Q1 1136
Q3 1263
1365
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Arisanna | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.9 |
| Water Vanitas | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 10.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
