Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Store Championship (MRC)
decks
1
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-2-1
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.5%
avg ELO -4.8 per match
expected value
47.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1322
· median 1322
· range 1322–1322
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1031
Q1 1187
Q3 1295
1569
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 25.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 25.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.0 |
| Wind Allies | 25.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.9% | -4.9 |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Ravishing Mill decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
