← FTG Grand Archive Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at FTG Grand Archive Store Championship . EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Slimes 1 14.3% 2 100.0% 66.1% 60.0% 59.7% 1536 ↑ top
2 Wind Shadowstrike 1 14.3% 3 83.3% 67.7% 56.7% 58.3% 1235 ↓ low
3 Fire Aggro 1 14.3% 3 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 1200 ↓ low
4 Norm Tera Silvie 1 14.3% 3 50.0% 49.0% 50.0% 49.5% 1201 ↓ low
5 Wind Allies 1 14.3% 3 50.0% 48.0% 50.0% 49.1% 1382 ↑ top
6 Water Ravishing Mill 1 14.3% 2 0.0% 36.1% 40.0% 41.6% 1364
7 Wind Umbra Tristan 1 14.3% 2 0.0% 30.6% 40.0% 38.4% 1352