EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at MBM Store Championship .
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 25.0% | 2 | 100.0% | 70.8% | 60.0% | 62.5% | 1295 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 25.0% | 2 | 50.0% | 43.3% | 50.0% | 46.0% | 1364 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 25.0% | 2 | 50.0% | 52.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | 1259 | — |
| 4 | Slimes | 1 | 25.0% | 2 | 0.0% | 33.8% | 40.0% | 40.3% | 1176 | ↓ low |