EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at store champ.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slimes | 1 | 14.3% | 4 | 100.0% | 71.7% | 60.0% | 58.7% | 1394 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 14.3% | 3 | 66.7% | 55.9% | 53.3% | 52.8% | 1212 | — |
| 3 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 14.3% | 3 | 66.7% | 54.2% | 53.3% | 52.0% | 1297 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Slimes | 1 | 14.3% | 3 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.3% | 53.3% | 1205 | — |
| 5 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 14.3% | 3 | 33.3% | 47.0% | 46.7% | 48.6% | 1178 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 14.3% | 2 | 0.0% | 35.5% | 40.0% | 41.3% | 1167 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Shadowstrike | 1 | 14.3% | 2 | 0.0% | 35.5% | 40.0% | 41.3% | 1167 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Water Crux Lorraine | 1 | 14.3% | 2 | 0.0% | 33.5% | 40.0% | 40.1% | 1145 | ↓ low |