← Mercurial Heart - Store Championships

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Mercurial Heart - Store Championships. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Slimes 1 25.0% 2 100.0% 65.4% 60.0% 59.2% 1468 ↑ top
2 Slimes 1 25.0% 2 50.0% 47.4% 50.0% 48.5% 1326 ↑ top
3 Water Neos 1 25.0% 1 0.0% 42.2% 40.0% 42.2% 1197 ↓ low
4 Water Ravishing Mill 1 25.0% 1 0.0% 42.4% 40.0% 42.4% 1244