← CoreTCG Mercurial Heart Store Championship Aug 27, 2024
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at CoreTCG Mercurial Heart Store Championship Aug 27, 2024.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 25.0% | 1 | 50.0% | 54.0% | 50.0% | 54.0% | 1528 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 50.0% | 1 | 50.0% | 46.0% | 50.0% | 46.0% | 1392 | — |
| 3 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 1 | 25.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | 1135 | ↓ low |