EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 8/11 下午2點 GA 大圖書館盃_豬豬玩具.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Allies | 2 | 20.0% | 6 | 83.3% | 53.7% | 59.3% | 51.8% | 1331 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 1 | 10.0% | 6 | 83.3% | 54.0% | 58.1% | 51.6% | 1186 | — |
| 3 | Water Ravishing Mill | 2 | 20.0% | 5 | 40.0% | 48.7% | 50.0% | 49.9% | 1203 | — |
| 4 | Slimes | 2 | 20.0% | 6 | 33.3% | 48.3% | 49.7% | 50.1% | 1103 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 30.0% | 5 | 0.0% | 44.7% | 35.4% | 47.2% | 1198 | — |