← Grand Archive Store Championship (MRC Season) @ TAB
Water AlliesTier 2
at Grand Archive Store Championship (MRC Season) @ TAB
decks
1
(16.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
2-1-0
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
61.4%
avg ELO +8.5 per match
expected value
48.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1330
· median 1330
· range 1330–1330
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1158
Q1 1199
Q3 1296
1587
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 50.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 16.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.5% | +21.6 |
| Slimes | 16.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
