EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Gaming Giant MRC Store Championships. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Wind Shadowstrike

55.0%

28.6% share · 6 matches

1st

Fire Crux Mage

59.2%

14.3% share · 3 matches

14.3% share · 2 matches

↓ low

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Fire Crux Mage	1	14.3%	3	83.3%	61.4%	59.2%	57.4%	1451	↑ top
2	Wind Shadowstrike	2	28.6%	6	58.3%	58.2%	55.0%	56.2%	1296	—
3	Fire Slimes	1	14.3%	2	50.0%	55.4%	53.3%	55.7%	1237	↓ low
4	Wind Crux Lorraine	1	14.3%	3	50.0%	40.3%	48.0%	43.7%	1292	—
5	Slimes	2	28.6%	4	12.5%	34.3%	39.2%	40.4%	1281	—