EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Yeti Gaming Webcam Weekly 9/12/2024. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Water Umbra Ranger

60.0%

2.8% share · 2 matches

5.6% share · 8 matches

3rd

Fire Crux Merlin

60.0%

2.8% share · 4 matches

↑ top

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Fire Crux Hybrid	2	5.6%	8	87.5%	52.3%	61.1%	50.9%	1339	—
2	Water Umbra Ranger	1	2.8%	2	100.0%	50.9%	60.0%	50.5%	1548	↑ top
3	Fire Crux Merlin	1	2.8%	4	100.0%	51.6%	60.0%	50.5%	1444	↑ top
4	Fire Erupting	1	2.8%	4	75.0%	51.3%	57.5%	50.7%	1396	—
5	Water Luxem Assassin	2	5.6%	7	50.0%	49.3%	55.4%	50.0%	1459	↑ top
6	Water Astra Arisanna	1	2.8%	5	80.0%	49.4%	54.4%	49.6%	1536	↑ top
7	Slimes	7	19.4%	26	55.8%	50.0%	52.8%	50.0%	1349	—
8	Water Astra Cleric	3	8.3%	9	55.6%	50.1%	51.9%	50.1%	1356	—
9	Water Neos	1	2.8%	4	50.0%	49.4%	51.4%	49.9%	1426	↑ top
10	Wind Astra Cleric	1	2.8%	3	33.3%	49.5%	50.0%	50.0%	1281	↓ low
11	Wind Shadowstrike	1	2.8%	3	50.0%	50.8%	50.0%	50.6%	1316	—
12	Water Tera Silvie	1	2.8%	3	33.3%	48.5%	47.8%	49.2%	1656	↑ top
13	Wind Allies	4	11.1%	16	46.9%	50.5%	47.7%	50.0%	1286	—
14	Wind Silvie	1	2.8%	4	37.5%	49.5%	46.7%	49.7%	1280	↓ low
15	Fire Aggro	6	16.7%	17	38.2%	50.3%	46.3%	50.2%	1208	↓ low
16	Wind Slice & Dice	1	2.8%	4	50.0%	51.1%	45.5%	50.2%	1223	↓ low
17	Water Ravishing Mill	1	2.8%	4	25.0%	49.0%	39.6%	49.2%	1262	↓ low
18	Wind Neos	2	5.6%	9	11.1%	47.9%	39.2%	49.1%	1361	—
19	Fire Arcane	1	2.8%	4	0.0%	47.8%	35.3%	48.8%	1166	↓ low